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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.